Miami-Dade 2040 LRTP - Oct. 23, 2014

5-2 | MOBILITY OPTIONS Financial Methodology SNAPSHOT The methodologies to estimate the potential revenues were guided by FDOT’s 2040 Revenue Forecast Handbook and Appendix for the Metropolitan Long Range Plan. The 2040 Revenue Forecast Handbook also provides guidelines for allocating and presenting future revenues. The Appendix for the Metropolitan Long Range Plan and the Supplement to the 2040 Revenue Forecast Handbook, 2040 Revenue Forecast for Miami-Dade Metropolitan Area (found in Appendix B and Appendix C , respectively) provide state and federal projected revenues statewide and for Miami-Dade County. The available resources are identified and used to prioritize future capital transportation investments in a “constrained” scenario limited to existing and reasonably likely funding sources. Available information provided by the County and transportation agencies is summarized below. Detailed information on the methodologies and assumptions used to develop the forecasted revenues by agency is located in the Miami-Dade MPO 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan Technical Memorandum: Financial Resources Review which can be found on the MPO website. Similar to the 2035 LRTP update, the 2040 LRTP presents both costs and revenue forecasts in year-of-expenditure (YOE) dollars. Federal planning regulations which were established in 2007 and corresponding MPO Advisory Council (MPOAC) guidelines require that both cost and revenue forecasts are presented in year-of-expenditure (YOE) dollars, rather than in base year dollars. FDOT revenue forecasts are in YOE dollars, and FDOT inflation forecasts were applied to estimate YOE project costs. Revenue forecasts are provided for 2019 and 2020 and then in five-year increments for the periods 2021 to 2025, 2026 to 2030, and a ten year increment for the period 2031 to 2040 to correspond to the forecasts provided by FDOT. Each of the incremental band years are identified as a Priority as follows: Priority I: TIP (2015-2019) and 2020 Priority II: 2021-2025 Priority III: 2026-2030 Priority IV: 2031-2040 With the recent adoption of the Transportation Improvement Plan (2015-2019), projections for 2019 – 2020 were reduced by half to account for FY19 inclusion in the TIP and FY20 as the remaining forecast year. Therefore, 50% of the 2019-2020 projections are estimated for 2020. The Florida’s Turnpike Enterprise (FTE) provided 10-year projections of gross toll revenues expected to be collected on the Homestead Extension of Florida’s Turnpike (HEFT). The assumptions on the approximate share of the HEFT in system-wide operating expenses, debt service and the ongoing replacement and renewal costs were discussed and agreed upon with FTE staff. Projections for Miami-Dade Expressway Authority (MDX) came from its 15-year Financial Plan containing a detailed breakdown of revenues, expenses and outstanding debt service. Revenue growth rates for all existing Miami-Dade County gas taxes and Road Impact Fees (RIF) were developed in consultation with the County’s Office of Management and Budget (OMB). Based on guidance from County staff, forecasts of Miami-Dade Transit (MDT) revenues are based on the latest People’s Transportation Plan (PTP) Pro Forma. Revenue estimates provided in the 2014 MDT Pro Forma were not independently verified, but were accepted as is. The 2040 LRTP projected Road Impact Fees are based on the historic as well as the latest data on building permits issued in the County. It was assumed that with the economic recovery, the number of building permits could recover by 2020 and would grow from thereon at the projected growth rate in population. Potential revenue sources were estimated based on the publicly available data on the existing tax bases and application of an additional rate of taxation allowed under the existing Florida law. I Priority Bands II III IV