Miami-Dade 2040 LRTP - Oct. 23, 2014

Appendices MIAMI-DADE LONG RANGE TRANSPORTATION PLAN UPDATE TO THE YEAR 2040 EYES ON THE FUTURE | C-3 2 noitatropsnarT fo tnemtrapeD adirolF 2040 Revenue Forecast (State and Federal Funds) The 2040 Revenue Forecast is the result of a three-step process: 1. State and federal revenues from current sources were estimated. 2. Those revenues were distributed among statewide capacity and non-capacity programs consistent with statewide priorities. 3. Estimates for certain capacity programs were developed for each of Florida’s 26 metropolitan areas. Forecast of State and Federal Revenues The 2040 Revenue Forecast includes program estimates for the expenditure of state and federal funds expected from current revenue sources (i.e., new revenue sources were not added). The forecast estimated revenues from federal, state, and Turnpike sources included in the Department’s 5-Year Work Program. The forecast did not estimate revenue from other sources (i.e., local government/authority taxes, fees, and bond proceeds; private sector participation; and innovative finance sources). Estimates of state revenue sources were based on estimates prepared by the State Revenue Estimating Conference in August 2012 for state fiscal years 2014 through 2021. Estimates of federal revenue sources were based on the Department’s Federal Aid Forecast for the same fiscal years. Assumptions about revenue growth were as follows: Revenue Sources Years Assumptions State Fuel Taxes 2014-2021 2022-2040 Annual 2.54% increase in 2022, gradually decreasing to 0.55% in 2040 State Tourism-Driven Sources (Rental Car Surcharge, Aviation Fuel Tax) 2014-2021 Florida Revenue Estimating Conference Estimates 2022-2040 Annual 3.04% increase in 2022, gradually decreasing to 2.86% in 2040 State Vehicle-Related Taxes (Vehicle License, Initial Registration and Incremental Title fees) 2014-2021 Florida Revenue Estimating Conference Estimates 2022-2040 Annual 2.28% increase in 2022, gradually decreasing to 1.71% in 2040 Documentary Stamps Taxes 2014-2021 Florida Revenue Estimating Conference Estimates 2022-2040 $348.5 million annually Federal Distribution (Total Obligating Authority) 2014-2021 FDOT Federal Aid Forecast 2022-2040 Annual 0.0% increase through 2040 Turnpike 2014-2022 Exising and programmed projects, cap on outstanding debt, and planned toll increases on expansion projects A summary of the forecast of state, federal and Turnpike revenues is shown in Table 1. The 2040 Revenue Forecast Handbook contains inflation factors that can be used to adjust project costs expressed in “present day cost” to “year of expenditure” dollars. Florida Revenue Estimating Conference Estimates